Good morning and Happy Tuesday. Thanks for reading today.

Back when I was working at the Chicago Tribune, I had lunch with someone in the wellness industry who told me that Dr. Oz’s then-very popular TV show was “pay for play,” meaning that the sellers of the products Dr. Oz showcased as being health-promoting had actually purchased time on his show, sort of like an infomercial. Only the audience, which was huge following his launch via The Oprah Winfrey Show, had no idea it was an infomercial. After all, Dr. Oz was a doctor, and one who had positioned himself as “the guy who will tell the truth.” Thanks to Winfrey’s endorsement, he was probably the most-trusted doctor in the country at the time.

But, as with Dr. Phil, Suze Orman, and pretty much everyone else Oprah launched, it soon became clear that Dr. Oz is not what he seemed. He’s a total weirdo. Specifically, he’s a weirdo who will say anything if he thinks it will 1) make him money or 2) cause his star to rise. For example, Oz claimed that hydroxychloroquine could be used to treat COVID-19, while failing to disclose that he owned stock in two companies that manufacture and sell hydroxychloroquine. He also referred to Dr. Anthony Fauci as a “tyrant.” And, prior to 2019, he supported reproductive freedom. By 2022, he supported overturning Roe v. Wade and called abortion “murder.” That’s a pretty quick turnaround on women’s rights to control their own bodies.

Which brings me to yesterday.

Dr. Oz, who is currently in charge of Medicare and Medicaid in this country, has done a lot of weird shit since he joined the Trump administration. Remember when he told Americans losing their health insurance not to “eat carrot cake” and to “eat real food” instead? Uh, last I checked, carrot cake is real food. Why are you demonizing carrot cake, which is delicious? Or when he hung a three-foot painting of Trump in his office? How about when he promised “more Trump babies” by the midterm elections?

Gross.

Now, I can do you one better. Yesterday, Dr. Oz told us that one in three Americans is “underbabied.” UNDER-BABIED.

That is not a thing.

Oz’s bizarre fixation on the birth rate aside, I am not a fan of the word “underbabied,” which sounds like some quota of babies handmaidens are supposed to hit before they’re punished by Gilead. Oz and the Trump administration are locked in on infertility, which affects one in eight couples in the United States, or about nine percent of men and eleven percent of women. Remember during his campaign, when Trump promised the government was going to make infertility treatments available for all? Yeah, neither does Trump.

In August 2024, Trump said that “the government is going to pay for it [IVF], ‘or we’re going to get, we’ll mandate your insurance company to pay for it, which is going to be great.” IVF can cost between $15,000 and $20,000 for a single cycle and can exceed $30,000 if a donor egg is involved. The out-of-pocket costs do not include medication, and it’s common for people to need several rounds before they get pregnant.

But over the summer, the Washington Post revealed the White House was quietly backing away from its initial pledge, as Trump couldn’t find a way to fulfill his promise without burdening health insurers.

It’s true that the birth rate in the US has fallen over the last few decades, reflecting a global trend of having fewer children. And while helping families who want children to have them is an admirable goal, the real reason America is “underbabied” has little to do with fertility and more to do with living in a country that makes affording children damn near impossible for working families.

Let’s start with the cost of having a baby. Literally. The average cost of delivering a baby in a hospital in the United States is prohibitive for some. Those who have employer-provided insurance can expect to pay an average of $2,655 for a vaginal birth and $3,214 for a C-section. Those without insurance are looking at costs closer to $20,000. And that’s assuming the baby doesn’t have any medical complications or need any specialized care. In other Western nations, such as Germany, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Australia, Canada, and the UK, the costs of delivering a baby are close to zero, though parents often pay for extra perks, such as a private room or a hotel-like suite.

Then, there’s the cost of childcare when both parents work outside the home.

When I had my children in the early 2000s, both my husband and I were working lawyers, which meant we had two children under two in daycare. I had left my job as a public defender before the birth of my second child — a move that broke my heart. However, waiting for juries to come back late at night and socializing with lawyers and prosecutors until the wee hours wasn’t compatible with having small children. My husband was working in downtown Chicago (at times, we both were), and whether he could get to the kids before daycare closed was largely dependent on Metra running on time. Five days a week, one of us had to duck out of work early (which our employers loved) to make it to daycare to pick up the kids. I even worked at an all-women law firm where both partners were working moms, and even they weren’t very understanding about the demands of small children. I’d love to believe that companies are more flexible about office face-time since COVID, but I’m not sure that’s true.

In 2022, the Department of Labor found that the cost of even one child in full-time daycare in the United States was prohibitive to many families.

If you have more than one child in daycare, as most everyone I knew did, well, you might as well be paying for college tuition. And, keep in mind that these estimates are from four years ago and are a national average. Those living in more urban areas likely pay far more. Everything is more expensive in 2026, including groceries, gas, and energy prices. Not to mention that the Trump administration is kicking kids off free school lunches and SNAP benefits left and right, reminding us all that while the right cares deeply about unborn children, once the kids are born, they’re on their own.

So, when I hear Republicans banging on about us being “underbabied,” without offering any kind of relief for the things that actually keep people from having more children, like soaring costs, inflexible work schedules, or the expense of childcare, I want to scream into a pillow. My husband and I often crunched the numbers to see if a third kid was in the cards for us. And, while we wanted a third child, ultimately, it would have been an irresponsible choice on our part. That, in my opinion, is the reason people are having fewer children.

Dr. Oz and Trump can miss me with this “underbabied” garbage.

In other news: Large-scale theft is happening at the White House!; The Iran War is costing more than the Trump administration is letting on; Caitlin Clark pulls up with known-racist Morgan Wallen; and The High Note.

Here we go.

Grifters are stealing from the White House

Things are going missing from the White House. A lot of things, in fact.

THE BUTLER DID IT! The White House Butler’s office has reported the ongoing large-scale theft of cutlery, service pieces, wine glasses…. Has anyone checked the Mar-a-Lago ballroom?

Jamie Schler (@lifesafeast.bsky.social) 2026-05-08T11:02:45.599Z

One hundred and forty-eight salad forks! Nineteen fish knives! Seven gravy ladles!

If any of these things are gold, I know a certain sentient winter squash with a penchant for gold leaf whose pockets the White House should probably check. Perhaps the Secret Service should start searching people on their way out of the WH dining room? Who knew hosting a bunch of grifters on the daily would result in so much missing silverware?

Pete Hegseth lied (Duh)

Last week (the week before? It’s all running together), Pete Hegseth told Congress that the Iran War, to date, had cost Americans approximately $25 billion. Turns out, he dramatically undersold the bill, according to Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.

Looks like we’re going to wind up paying a lot more than $25 billion, all in.

Since the start of the war, oil markets have been disrupted, and consumer confidence has cratered. The global economy is groaning, and military budgets are growing. The toll from this upheaval must be counted in lives disrupted, jobs lost, companies shut down (see: Spirit Airlines), and the income and output sacrificed. The less easily quantified costs — death, disability and mental health — could become much more dramatic should President Trump send troops into Iran, which still can’t be ruled out.

***

Professional forecasters account for the full set of macroeconomic consequences, and economists at Goldman Sachs reckon that U.S. economic growth will be 0.5 percentage points lower as a result of the war. If it takes a couple of years for the economy to return to normal, that slower growth rate would mean around $400 billion in lost income, and Goldman warns it could be nearly twice as bad.

***

How costly could this get? The White House originally signaled that it would need an extra $200 billion to prosecute the Iran war. More recently, the administration made a defense budget request of $1.5 trillion for fiscal 2027, a roughly 40 percent boost over this year. That’s a massive $600 billion increase, or roughly $4,000 per household.

That’s just additional spending for 2027.

***

The best any economist can do right now is get the order of magnitude right, and my math suggests the Iran war will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and very possibly trillions.

(emphasis added)

I’ll take my household’s tariff refund now.

Caitlin Clark has no problem with Morgan Wallen, which is a problem

Early on Monday morning, NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach, who has been covering pro and college sports for a decade, reported that she watched a credentialed media member chase down a WNBA player “for a hug.” That led to a debate about why the media coverage of the WNBA is so different from that of every other league, though I would argue that plenty of men covering men’s leagues would love a hug from their favorite player if they thought they could get away with asking for one.

Given Nicole’s report, though, I doubt anyone will be asking Caitlin Clark about this anytime soon.

Highlight Queens: Morgan Wallen Knows the Caitlin Clark Effect 😭🔥 Link: www.youtube.com/shorts/SQURM... #CC22 #CaitlinClark #FeverRising #NowYouKnow #FromAnywhere #IndianaFever #WNBA #MorganWallen

Caitlin Clark News (Fan Account) (@caitlinclarknews.bsky.social) 2026-05-11T01:07:43.493Z

For those who don’t know, Wallen was rightly canceled back in 2021, when a video of him using a racial slur went viral. Since then, Wallen has regularly been in the news, usually for things like tossing a couch off the roof of a Nashville bar in 2024 and his subsequent probation. He also infamously stormed off the SNL stage before the credits had finished rolling, then almost immediately posted “Get me to God’s country” on Instagram. He’s pretty much the poster boy for the MAGA crowd in country music, though he’s never publicly endorsed Trump. But whether Wallen is a fan of Trump’s is beside the point, because his music and image appeal to the MAGA demographic more than any other group.

Caitlin Clark has taken a lot of flak for not standing up for Black women in the WNBA, particularly as Indiana Fever fans have repeatedly been accused of yelling racial slurs and harassing Black women on other teams. But it’s not just the Fever, though Clark certainly brought a lot of new fans to the game who have… a specific political leaning and seem very invested in seeing a white player succeed.

There’s also the difficulty with addressing in-game racism. In 2024, Phoenix Mercury star Brittney Griner said that many players were subjected to racial slurs from fans during games — attributing the attack to new WNBA viewers. “I don’t appreciate the new fans that sit there and yell racial slurs at myself, my teammates, and the people that I play against because, yeah, those might be opponents but those are friends, too,” Griner said. “They don’t deserve that, so I don’t appreciate the new fans that think it’s OK to do that.” Retired WNBA legend Sue Bird, who is white, also noted the league’s problem with racism, but pushed back against assumptions that it started with Clark’s fame. “Caitlin didn’t bring racism to the WNBA. This has been happening,” Bird said in a 2024 podcast episode. “That, I think, has been a shock for all of us. That other people are surprised by this. We’ve been trying to tell you.”

Clark has repeatedly been asked to decry the racism in the WNBA, which she has dutifully done, though only when specifically asked about it. Clark is never going to be the person who arrives at a post-game presser and says, “Before we begin, I have something I want to address.” Whether that is because of brand deals, her management team, or just who she is is anyone’s guess.

I’ve defended Clark in the past because she was a young kid thrust into a situation she didn’t ask for. It wasn’t her fault that all the Barstool fans were suddenly watching the WNBA and jeering at Black women, and I didn’t think it was fair to put ending racism in pro sports on a rookie. There were plenty of adults in the room. But Clark is now in her third year in the league, and is looked to as a leader by her teammates.

We can argue about whether or not Wallen is actually racist or just a dumbass. He met with Black leaders and donated money following the racial slur incident, though whether that was his idea or at the behest of his label, we can all guess. But pulling up with Morgan Wallen, an artist who is still best-known for his casual use of the n-word with a hard “r,” sends a message to the other women in the league about where Clark stands on racism. Imagine being a Black woman in the league and seeing this.

Clark is old enough to know better. Now she has to do better.

The High Note

Each Day, I do my best to leave you with a smile on your face, a song in your heart, and the will to fight another day.

You guys know by now that Parks & Rec is my happy place. I saw Patton Oswalt talking about this scene and how the opening of The Book of Boba Fett was timed to perfectly match his filibuster. And honestly, this is a lot like what it sounds like in my head when I’m trying to go to sleep each night.

And here are the scenes side-by-side.

Hey, survive and advance out there today, kids. Don’t let the bastards get you down.

Follow Julie on Bluesky and Instagram so she can get another book contract.

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